I should probably do a more in-depth look at probability in RPGs or video games in general. But for now, this is what we’re doing with probability in Himeko Sutori.
The way level-ups work in Himeko Sutori is you get XP (or experience points, but if you’re reading a gamedev blog you knew that already) from battles, with XP you level up, and then when you level up, you get to draw level-up cards. Every character class has a deck of cards, and at every level-up, you get to draw three cards for that character. Sometimes those cards unlock a new character class. You start with two character classes and eventually you can unlock up to 20.
![5d0afbb05d0e8.gif 5d0afbb05d0e8.gif](https://i.gjcdn.net/public-data/fireside/posts/4/76/263826/media/5d0afbb05d0e8-gzpbq5fd.gif)
But initial test play revealed that players were spending too much time at the lower-tiered character classes and weren’t able to switch classes as often as we had hoped. So we took a look at the probabilities of drawing a class-unlock card, and basically stacked the deck to ensure unlocks more often.
![5d0afbb262619.jpg 5d0afbb262619.jpg](https://m.gjcdn.net/content/750/2113090-ygckxq97-v4.webp)
But we didn’t just go about that all willy-nilly. We figured we wanted to have a fair likelihood of unlocking a new class even after just one level-up, and we didn’t want anyone to have to grind more than three levels in a class just to unlock a different class.
So with the first two available character classes, there are 12 level-up cards, and three of them unlock a new character class. If you draw three cards at each level-up, you have a 62% chance of unlocking at least one character class at your first level-up, and a 91% chance of unlocking at least one character class by your second level-up.
That’s going to make changing character classes a lot easier.
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